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January 3, 2023; Lubbock, Texas, USA; The Texas Tech Red Raiders and coach Mark Adams after their game against the Kansas Jayhawks at United Supermarkets Arena. Required credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Is the golden age of Texas Tech basketball over? Or are this year’s fights just an anomaly?
Those are the questions Red Raider fans are grappling with after Saturday’s overtime loss to Oklahoma left Mark Adams’s team 0-3 in Big 12 play.
The picture is bleak right now for the Red Raiders. Facing a week that puts them on the road for two tough tests, in Iowa State and Texas, this struggling team is staring down the barrel of an 0-5 start to league play before it even gets a chance to play at home. House. court again.
What’s more, life doesn’t get any easier when Tech finally returns to the United Supermarkets Arena, as their opponents will be Baylor, a team who are also 0-3 in league play at the moment but who are more talented in the role of who the Red Raiders are. After that, a trip to Morgantown, West Virginia awaits, a place where technology has won only twice in the show’s history.
Of course, the team’s health is also adding cause for alarm. After the loss to the Sooners, Adams said none of the three players who missed Saturday’s game, Daniel Batcho, Pop Isaacs and KJ Allen, are likely to play Tuesday against the Cyclones.
While fights like this aren’t uncharted territory for this show, they are disturbing for a show that has been as successful as this one has been in recent years. Since the last year of the Tubby Smith era (after the 2015-16 regular season), the Red Raiders have only suffered seven straight losses in three or more games. What’s more, none of the previous six streaks surpassed four games.
Also, if this team doesn’t have a significant and unlikely turnaround in the next two months, this will be the first time Tech has missed out on the NCAA Tournament since 2017, Chris Beard’s first year in charge at Lubbock.
As you’d expect, there was quite a bit of frustration expressed by the fan base after the loss to OU. Even with all the pieces missing, that was a game the Red Raiders should have won, but another late-game blunder proved to be this team’s downfall as Tech allowed OU to score on their final possession of regulation and then failed. in responding with a bucket of their own.
After that disappointing loss, the fanbase’s range of emotions stretched from blind rage to apathy. However, practically nobody is satisfied with the state of things as we enter the second week of the new year. And while the season still has 15 more conference games and the conference tournament to go, it looks like Texas Tech basketball may already be at a tipping point, something no one expected in just the second year of Adams’ tenure.
So how did we get here and who should shoulder the brunt of the blame? Let’s assess why the Red Raiders are struggling and what can be done about it, both in the immediate and longer term.
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At first, Adams seemed to be moving away from what brought him most of his head coaching success at the collegiate level. Rather than putting his defensive philosophy first when building his squad, he tried to bring players with a reputation as attacking players into the fold.
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Last year, he had at guard positions a pair of six-foot-long, athletic players, Adonis Arms and Kevin McCullar. Both players were elite on defense but only average when it came to scoring the basketball. As a result, when Tech met Duke, an elite offensive team, in the Sweet 16, Tech simply didn't have enough firepower to match the Bluedevils.
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Thus, Adams set out to try to overhaul his team's offensive offense in the offseason. He brought in legendary JUCO coach Steven Green to bring a new offensive scheme to the Red Raiders. That system would need more marksmen to be successful, so players like Isaacs, Walton and Williams were signed. Additionally, Adams wanted a point guard with ball control, so he pulled De'Vion Harmon out of the gate.
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Problem is, none of the new guards added to the team this year are over six feet tall with starters Harmon and Isaacs both standing around six feet. What's more, none of these players have elite athletics. Thus, this year's team is much less effective on the defensive end, as the guards and wingers are not as capable of closing down passing lanes and smothering opposing ball handlers as previous Tech teams.
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Essentially, Adams gambled that he could teach offensive-minded players how to play elite defense and that didn't prove to be the case. This, combined with the team's dwindling athleticism, made this the most ineffective defensive team Tech has had since Adams joined the program in 2016-17.
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Technology is only 24th in the KenPom.com adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. While that's not awful, it's a far cry from last season when Adams placed his team No. 1 on that metric. So it's fair to wonder if Adams made a critical mistake in putting together this year's list. That's because, not only did the offensive players he added suck defensively, but some of them sucked when it comes to putting points on the scoreboard as well.
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Texas Tech guard Jaylon Tyson (20), right, recovers the ball against Oklahoma in a Big 12 basketball game, Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023, at United Supermarkets Arena.
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What can be done to fix these issues?
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Now the question that must be addressed is, what can be done to fix Texas Tech's problems? Unfortunately, there just isn't much happening in the next couple of months that will make a change. But in the long run, there could be a big payoff coming your way.
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Of course, a return to health for the currently injured Red Raiders would make the biggest difference in the immediate. With Isaacs and Batcho at 100%, this team is capable of beating any team in the league any day, as we saw against Kansas on Tuesday.
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However, Batcho has not been at full strength since early December due to a sprained ankle, illness and now, a dislocated finger. When will he return to the form he showed earlier in the season at the Maui Invitational, when he averaged 15.7 points and 7.7 rebounds in three games? In fact, it's fair to wonder if we'll see that sophomore version again this season.
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Additionally, Isaacs' return will be a huge boost, as he's already proven to be the best outside shooter on this team with 42.2% from beyond the arc. After seeing the Red Raiders go just 2-18 (11.1%) from 3-point range Saturday night against OU, everyone in scarlet and black is desperate for the rookie to get back into action.
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However, even with a fully healthy squad, Tech would likely only be a borderline tournament team. What's more, it would be naive to think that the return of Fardaws Aimaq will make this team a force to reckon with. To expect him to be anything more than a minor player after missing the last four months with a broken foot is foolish. Can he help? Perhaps. But he will not be a savior.
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Simply put, this year is likely to be a slog. That's just the reality we're facing. The only hope is that soon these rookies will start to figure things out and take their games to a higher level and that the growing pains that have plagued this team so far will start to subside significantly. If that happens, Tech could be a tough team to deal with down the stretch.
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More important, however, is the long-term future of this program. When Adams decided to go heavy with the youth movement this year, instead of bringing in even more transfers, he played the game for the long haul.
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There's a chance this list will return to everyone but Kevin Obanor next year. While that won't happen given that transfers are inevitable in the current NCAA landscape, if the Red Raiders can keep the core of Batcho, Isaacs, Harmon, Washington, Aimaq and Jennings together while adding Georgia's recently signed transfer, KyeRon Lindsay thrown into the mix, this will be a team that can go into next season hoping to be a factor in the conference race.
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Also, Adams must rid this crew of passengers and replace them with people who make a difference. This means that the transfer gate will once again be critical for the Red Raiders.
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Will Adams return to his former philosophy of finding defense-oriented players who can give this program back the identity that has made it so successful over the past six seasons? With the likes of Batcho, Harmon and Isaacs already in place, there could be enough offense on the roster to allow Adams to feel comfortable bringing in players who can play the type of elite defense he prefers.
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It's not easy to think about already turning hopes for next season and certainly no one should give up on this year's team just yet. However, this is not a roster built to stand out at the highest levels of this year's conference. Rather, it is something that can grow over time, something that has become uncommon in the age of transfer portals.
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If that happens, it will be worth enduring all the struggles this year. Until then, though, it could be a difficult journey for Red Raider fans over the next couple of months.
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